Reading Betfair Odds: Master Price Movements

Odds aren't random - they tell a story. Learn to read that story and you'll know when to enter, when to exit, and when to stay away.

Odds Movement Essentials

Odds = market's implied probability
Shortening odds = increasing confidence (bullish)
Drifting odds = decreasing confidence (bearish)
Price movements driven by money, information, and sentiment
Back when odds shorten, lay when odds drift

Understanding Betfair Odds

Odds = implied probability + your potential profit.

Check our Odds Converter Calculator to see how odds are calculated.

Examples:

Odds 2.00 = 50% probability
Odds 3.00 = 33.3% probability
Odds 1.50 = 66.7% probability

Odds Basics

Back odds: What you receive when betting FOR an outcome

Lay odds: What you offer when betting AGAINST an outcome

Dynamic: Change constantly based on supply and demand

How Odds Move

40%

Market Sentiment

35%

Information Flow

25%

Trading Volume

1. Market Sentiment: Collective opinion of all traders

Team dominating → odds shorten
Team struggling → odds drift

2. Information Flow: New information = odds adjustment

Team news (lineups, injuries)
Weather conditions
Performance data
Events like goals & red cards

3. Trading Volume: Large bets move odds significantly

£10K back bet → odds shorten
£10K lay bet → odds drift

Shortening Odds (Bullish)

Odds decrease = market more confident.

Shortening Pattern

Example: Team A odds movement

Pre-match: 3.00
After positive news: 2.50
Early dominance: 2.00
After goal: 1.50

Interpretation: Increasing confidence in Team A winning

When to back: Early in the trend
When to lay: After significant shortening (for reversal)

Drifting Odds (Bearish)

Odds increase = market less confident.

Drifting Pattern

Example: Team B odds movement

Pre-match: 2.00
After injury news: 2.50
Poor start: 3.50
After conceding: 6.00

Interpretation: Decreasing confidence in Team B winning

When to lay: Early in the trend
When to back: After significant drift (if you believe in recovery)

Reading Match Scenarios

0-0 Draw Scenario

As time passes with no goals:

0-0 Odds Progression

Draw odds shorten:

0 mins: 3.50
30 mins: 3.00
60 mins: 2.20
80 mins: 1.50

Team odds drift (both teams):

0 mins: 2.50
30 mins: 3.00
60 mins: 4.50
80 mins: 8.00+

Why: Each minute without goals increases draw probability

1-0 Lead Scenario

Leading team odds shorten, trailing team odds drift:

Leading team: 2.00 → 1.50 → 1.30 → 1.15
Trailing team: 3.00 → 5.00 → 8.00 → 15.0
Draw: 3.50 → 4.50 → 5.50 (gradually drifts)

Trading Based on Odds Movements

Trend Following

Ride the wave of odds movements.

Reversal Trading

Anticipate trend reversals.

Signals:

Odds reached extreme levels
Momentum shift in game
Overreaction to single event

Strategy:

Lay overpriced favorites underperforming
Back underpriced underdogs overperforming
Lay underpriced underdogs underperforming
Wait for correction

Support and Resistance Levels

Like stock markets, odds have key levels.

Support Levels (price floor):

Team odds keep bouncing off 2.00
Heavy backing prevents further drift
Trading: Back near support, lay when odds shorten

Resistance Levels (price ceiling):

Team odds keep failing to break below 1.50
Heavy laying prevents further shortening
Trading: Lay near resistance, back when odds drift

Common Patterns

Pre-Match Drift

Odds lengthen before event starts.

Causes:

Negative team news
Market correction
Low confidence

Strategy: Lay early if you expect drift to continue. If the selection is underperforming

Late Drift

Odds lengthen close to event start.

Causes:

Last-minute team news
Weather changes
Market uncertainty

Strategy: Assess information, trade accordingly

Common Mistakes

Avoid These Errors

1. Ignoring context: Odds move for reasons - understand why

2. Chasing movements: Entering too late in the trend

3. Fighting the trend: Market is usually right

4. Overtrading: Quality beats quantity

5. Emotional decisions: Stick to analysis, not hope

Odds movements aren't random - they're the market's collective intelligence. Learn to read them and you'll know exactly when to trade.