Back-to-Lay Strategy: Profit from Shortening Odds

Back-to-lay is the foundation of Betfair trading. Back a selection at higher odds, wait for odds to shorten, then lay at lower odds. Guaranteed profit either way.

Back-to-Lay Essentials

Back first at higher odds, lay later at lower odds
Profit when odds shorten (decrease)
Perfect for favorites and strong performers
Requires patience and market reading
Use Traderline for automatic calculations

What is Back-to-Lay?

Back-to-lay = profit from odds shortening (decreasing).

Process:

Back a selection at higher odds (e.g., 5.0)
Wait for odds to shorten (e.g., to 3.0)
Lay the same selection at lower odds
Result: Guaranteed profit regardless of outcome

The Classic Strategy

Back-to-lay: Profit from odds shortening
Lay-to-back: Profit from odds drifting

Same principle, opposite direction.

How It Works: Step-by-Step

Back-to-Lay Example

Step 1: Back horse at 5.0

Step 2: Odds shorten to 3.0 (horse performing well)

Step 3: Lay horse at 3.0

Result:

If horse wins: Back bet wins, lay bet loses = Guaranteed profit
If horse loses: Back bet loses, lay bet wins = Guaranteed profit

Why Do Odds Shorten?

Understanding WHY odds shorten helps you identify opportunities.

50%

Strong Performance

Likely

Market Confidence

Historical

Positive Tendencies

1. Strong Performance:

Team dominates possession
Player wins first set easily
Horse takes early lead

2. Market Confidence:

Heavy backing from informed traders
Momentum builds
Opposition weakens

3. Historical Tendencies:

Team is known to perform better on specific scenarios
Favorable conditions (such as good substitution)
Tactical advantage emerges

Best Scenarios for Back-to-Lay

Favorites Pre-Match

Perfect setup: Lay favorite before match, Back if they start strong.

Favorite Back-to-Lay

Identify:

Strong favorite at 1.80-2.50
Good recent form
Home advantage
Weak opposition

Action:

Lay at pre-match odds
Confirm if they have a strong start
Back them if they're dominating

Example: Lay at 1.80, team is not agressive early. Conditions change - back this selection

In-Play Momentum

Watch for:

Team scores first goal
Favourite breaks underdog early on the first set
Horse takes lead

Strategy: Back before momentum, lay after or before it builds

Underdog Value

Setup: Underdog at high odds starts performing well.

Example:

Back underdog at 8.0
They score first
Odds shorten to 3.0
Lay for guaranteed profit

Key Indicators for Success

Shortening Indicators

Back when you see:

Strong pre-match form
Favorable matchup
Market undervaluing selection
Positive team news

Lay when:

Odds have shortened from back price
Performance confirms your thesis
Market has corrected
Projected profit is on par with analysis

Spotting Odds Shortening Opportunities

Pre-Match Analysis

Research:

Recent form (last 5-10 events)
Head-to-head records
Home/away performance
Motivation levels
Market sentiment
Competition status (do they need a win?)

Green flags (odds likely to shorten):

Underpriced based on form
Strong home record
Favorable conditions
Key players fit

In-Play Analysis

In-Play Shortening Signals

Football:

Dominant possession
Creating chances
Controlling tempo
Opposition under pressure

Tennis:

Breaking or nearly breaking the opponent consistently
Strong serve (higher points scored on 1st and 2nd serves)
Saving break points consistently while nearly breaking opponent
Is able to score points against opponent's serve

Horse Racing:

Good position in race
Jockey confident
Horse not showing issues
Historically dangerous

Risk Management

Back-to-lay has higher risk than lay-to-back on some sports.

Advanced Tactics

Multiple Lays

Layer your exits for maximum profit.

Strategy:

Back at 5.0
Lay 30% at 4.0
Lay 40% at 3.0
Lay final 30% at 2.5
Do this if you're losing confidence on your position
Result: Maximize profit while closing your position

Best Markets for Back-to-Lay

Football

Match Odds: Back favorites showing strength

Over/Under: Back overs when goals likely / unders when goals unlikely

Tennis

Match Winner: Back strong performers

Set Betting: Back specific scorelines

Horse Racing

Win Market: Back well-positioned horses

Back-to-lay is the safest Betfair strategy. Master it first, then explore more advanced techniques.